EIA预测今年布伦特原油均价为33美元蜗轮蜗杆

据能源世界网4月9日新德里报道，美国能源信息署（EIA）预测，今年布伦特原油每桶均价为33美元，低于此前预测的43美元。

EIA在其最新的能源展望报告中表示，由于2019年疫情对能源市场的影响仍在不断发展，因此该预测将面临更大的不确定性。

EIA称，尤其是自2020年初以来，原油价格大幅下跌，主要原因是疫情造成的经济收缩以及石油输出国组织(OPEC)和伙伴国家之间先前商定的减产暂停后原油供应突然增加。

EIA预计2020年第二季度布伦特原油每桶均价为23美元，然后在下半年提高至每桶30美元。

该机构预测，由于全球石油库存下降给价格带来上行压力，2021年布伦特均价将升至每桶46美元，较上个月的预测下调10美元。

据估计，2020年第一季度，全球石油和液体燃料的日均消费量约为9440万桶，较2019年同期减少560万桶。

EIA预计，今年，全球石油和液体燃料日需求将从去年的1.007亿桶下降520万桶，然后在2021年增加640万桶。

EIA的最新能源展望预测的全球石油需求增长下降反映出越来越多的证据表明，全球经济活动受到严重破坏，预期的全球旅行减少。

EIA预计，全球液态燃料库存在2019年下降约20万桶/日之后，今年将日均增长390万桶。

由于广泛的旅行限制和经济活动的急剧减少，预计2020年上半年库存增幅将是最大的，第一季度将以570万桶/日的速度增长，第二季度将以1140万桶/日的速度增长。

随着全球经济开始复苏，供应增长放缓，需求增长将导致全球石油库存从今年第四季度开始减少。EIA预计，全球液体燃料库存2021年将下降170万桶/日。

该机构预测，美国将于2020年第三季度恢复为原油和石油产品的净进口国。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下：

EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $33 in 2020

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected Brent crude prices to average $33 per barrel in 2020, down from $43 per barrel forecasted earlier.

The agency said in its latest energy outlook report the projection is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the impacts of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on energy markets are still evolving.

“Crude oil prices, in particular, have fallen significantly since the beginning of 2020, largely driven by the economic contraction caused by COVID-19 and a sudden increas空调风叶e in crude oil supply following the suspension of previously agreed upon production cuts among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner AV音响countries,” EIA said.

EIA expects Brent crude prices to average $23 per barrel during the second quarter of 2020 before increasing to $30per barrel during the second half of the year.

The agency forecasts that average Brent prices will increase to an average of $46 per barrel in 2021, lower by $10 forecasted last month, as declining global oil inventories puts upward pressure on prices.

It estimated global petroleum and liquid fuels consumption to average around 94.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first quarter of 2020, a decline of 5.6 million b/d from the same period in 2019.

EIA expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand to decrease by 5.2 million b/d in 2020 from an average of 100.7 million b/d last year before increasing by 6.4 million b/d in 2021.

Lower global oil demand growth projected in its latest energy outlook edition reflects growing evidence of significant disruptions to global economic activity along with reduced expected travel globally because of COVID-19.

EIA expects global liquid fuels inventories to grow by an average of 3.9 million b/d in 2020 after falling by about 0.2 million b/d in 2019.

Inventory builds are expected to be the largest in the first half of 2020, rising at a rate of 5.7 million b/d in the first quarter and increasing to builds of 11.4 million b/d in the second quarter as a result of widespread travel limitations and sharp reductions in economic activity.

Firmer demand growth as the global economy begins to recover and slower supply 学步车growth will contribute to global oil inventory draws beginning in the fourth quarter of 2020. EIA expects global liquid fu浴巾els inventories will decline by 1.7 million b/d in 2021.

The agency has forecasted the US to return to being a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020.